The year 2024 has not been good for stock market investors. The stock market was in decline throughout the year. As a result, investors have suffered huge losses. In this situation, the year 2025 is starting from the swing of hope and despair.
In the new year, overall political stability is seen as a big challenge. However, market participants see it as a big challenge for the stock market to restore investors' confidence.
They said that that after the fall of the government, various reform steps have been taken to develop the share market. If these reforms are carried out properly, it can have a positive impact on the market.
However, the biggest challenge is to restore the confidence of investors to do well in the stock market. The stock market was in decline throughout 2024 due to a crisis of confidence. Now, to restore investor confidence, investment must be protected. At the same time, political stability must be maintained.
A review of the data shows that the stock market was in decline for most of 2024. However, after the fall of the Awami League government on August 5, there was a big rise in the stock market for four working days. However, after the interim government took over the responsibility of running the country, the stock market returned to decline. At the same time, there has been a drought of transactions. Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) witness loss in the benchmark indices while Chittagong Stock Exchange (CSE) witnessed gain yesterday.
On the first day of 2024, the main index of the DSE, DSEX, was at 6,242 points. At the end of the day, the DSEX stood at 5,169 points at the end of the day. That is, the main index of the DSE has decreased by more than 1,000 points. There has also been a big fall in market capitalization.
On the first day of the year, the market capitalization of the DSE was Tk 1 lakh 8 thousand 823 crore. With the fall, the market capitalization now stands at Tk 6 lakh 59 thousand 57 crore. That is, the market capitalization of the DSE has decreased by more than Tk 1 lakh crore. The decrease in market capitalization means that the share and unit prices of the listed companies have decreased by that amount.
In such a situation, how will the new year 2025 be for the stock market? Such a question was asked to the Chairman of Investment Corporation of Bangladesh (ICB) Abu Ahmed. In response, the former professor of economics department of Dhaka University said, "What will happen in the future will be the real share market. There will be no 'pumping and dumping' by hiring gamblers as before. Transactions can be Tk 300 crore, Tk 400 crore or Tk 700 crore or more, with the participation of genuine investors. Not by selling items. Next year we will have a fair share market."
He said, "Some of our investors want a booming stock market. You have to throw them out of your head. Taking a share from Tk 100 to Tk 1,000 in two-three months, you have to throw it out of your head. There will be no such stock market. What will happen will be a real stock market. If there are some good IPOs, people will be able to invest in the long term."
DSE Director Md Shakil Rizvi said, "If the reforms that are being talked about are market-friendly and if the reforms are carried out properly, we hope the stock market will be good next year. In addition to market-friendly policy reforms, steps should be taken to bring good IPOs to the market. If it is possible to bring IPO of a good company, the depth of the market will increase."
Saiful Islam, president of the DSE Brokers Association of Bangladesh (DBA), said, "The ominous signal in the market is the lack of confidence. We need to restore that trust, that's our main expectation. So far, I don't see anything to be optimistic about. I don't see any action from anyone to improve the market or to create new hope for the market."
What steps can be taken to be optimistic about the market? When asked, he said, "First of all, trust has to be restored. The regulator needs to take steps to restore trust. To restore confidence, investors need to protect their investments. To make the market good, IPO of quality companies should be brought."
What will be the biggest challenges for businesses in 2025? In response to such a question, the DBA president said, "The main challenge will be political problems. Until the political problem is resolved, there will be no other problem. It all depends on politics. This labor unrest is more a political issue than an economic one. And then fuel. The fuel depends on what the country's fiscal policy will be. It has to do with political stability. I think the main problem is the political problem. It should be clear whether there will be a caretaker government next year or a political government."
What will the investment situation look like in the new year? In response to such a question, he said, "It depends on the reforms. Because for four months we have been saying that it will be reformed. Is there any reform, and if so, what is being reformed? Isn't it investment-friendly? Now there is no political program, now there is only one program, it is reform. Our future depends on how and how these reforms take place."
