The year 2024 is more important than previous years in world history. Because most of the countries of the world elections are going to be held this year. This vote could bring major changes in the geopolitics. Given the current system, experts fear that a radical government system could rise in 2024, which could pose a crisis for liberalism.
70 elections will be held in 40 countries in 2024, which could change the world order. 15 votes are to be held in Africa, 9 in America, 11 in Asia, 22 in Europe, and four in Oceania. That start will begin on January 7 in Bangladesh and end on November 5 in the United States (US). Besides, the European Union (EU) and United Nations Security Council elections will also be held this year. 42 percent of the world's population will exercise their right to vote. 40 countries account for 42 percent of the world's total GDP. That is, the election of 2024 will play a big role in the economy.
Important elections
Four elections will have the greatest impact on the global system. The countries are – the US, Russia, India, and the EU. 2.3 billion People live in these areas and the combined GDP (Gross Domestic Product) of these countries is $42 trillion. But Taiwan's vote is no less important. Because this election will affect China, which is important for global order.
Biden or Trump
On November 5, millions of US voters will choose the next successor to the White House. So far, the potential candidate of the Democratic Party, Joe Biden, and the potential candidate of the Republican Party, Donald Trump, are considered to be the main rivals. Although none of them are guaranteed to be selected. Several lawsuits are pending against Trump. In the end, there is doubt whether he will be able to participate in the vote or not, that is, whether he will be banned by the court or not. Again, President Joe Biden said that his candidacy depends on Trump. If Trump is not the candidate, he may also step down. Americans will decide on November 5 whether they will vote for 82-year-old Biden or 78-year-old Trump. However, polls have seen differences of opinion among Americans. Experts fear that cyber-attacks and fake information will spread widely in this election.
Putin is dreaming of another six years of power
Russian President Vladimir Putin has been in power since 1999. Putin amended the constitution in 2020 so that he could be in power until 2036. The polls will be from March 15 to March 17 in Russia. A new president will take office in May. People of some occupied areas of Ukraine will also vote in this election. 11 million voters in Russia. But usually 7 crore to 8 crore people vote. The voter turnout in 2018 was 67.5 percent.
Despite criticism in the Western world, various polls show that Putin's popularity has increased since the war in Ukraine. Which has reached 80 percent. So his victory in the election is only a matter of time. If he wins this time, he will be in power until 2030. Putin was elected president by getting 53 percent of the votes in the 2000 presidential election, 71.3 percent in 2004, 63.6 percent in 2012, and 76.7 percent in 2018. In reality, no one can be called a big rival to Putin. In 2018, Pavel Grudunin, a strawberry trader, ran against Putin in the election. He received 11.8 percent of the vote. Alexei Navalny, Putin's arch-rival, is serving a 33-year prison sentence in various cases. Another rival, Igor Girkin, is also in prison.
Modi's great energy play
Indians will choose a new Prime Minister in April-May 2024. The current Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his BJP party may come to power for a third term as well. Modi's political career is based on the support of India's nationalist Hindus. If Modi is not elected in the next election, there will be a big change in the political philosophy of India. According to the survey, the BJP will get more seats also in the next election. But the party will get fewer seats than before. Even though the number of seats has decreased compared to 2019, the BJP will remain strong in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The opposition has formed the 'India' alliance, but the BJP has won three of the five recent state elections. The country has overtaken Britain to become the world's fifth-largest economy. Last August, India sent an unmanned spaceship to the moon. Narendra Modi's government also plans to send a man to the moon by 2040.
EU test for populists
In June 2024, more than 400 million voters from the 27 countries of the EU will elect 720 members of the European Parliament. They will decide on issues ranging from mobile phone roaming charges to online data privacy. This election will be a test for right-wing populist supporters. Recently, the anti-Islamic and anti-EU Freedom Party won in the Netherlands. Last year, hard-right Giorgio Meloni's party won in Italy. France's hard-right National Rally MEP Jordan Berdela wrote on Facebook welcoming Green Wilders' party: Come June 2024. Elections will lead to a new European Commission.
Taiwan election
Elections will be held in Taiwan on January 13. There are two types of ideologies in Taiwan. One group is nationalist and the other focuses on mainland China. China plays a role in selecting candidates. If the pro-China wins, the country's relationship with Taiwan will develop. Taiwan's economy may also be linked to China's. But what kind of role the US takes, is a matter to be seen.
What will change in the world system?
The US is known as the leader of the free world. However, the potential candidate of the Republican Party in the 2024 election, Donald Trump himself does not believe in pluralism. He single-handedly led the United States to world number one. He gave birth to the slogan 'America First, 'Great America Make Again'. US media and experts believe that Trump believes in white supremacy. He united the majority semi-educated and illiterate white population to maintain his political power. Based on this, he tried to bring the US to the number one position in the world. As a result, conservatives are coming to power not only in the US but in various countries. Liberal policies are in shambles. Next year's elections are expected to have a greater impact in this regard.
Trump, who won the 2016 presidential election, scrapped the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) deal. His government withdrew from the North Atlantic Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and the International Climate Agreement. Rejected the six-nation nuclear deal with Iran. In the interests of the US, Trump opted for negotiated import-export trade on a bilateral basis instead of multilateral trade agreements. Trump wants to maintain the military and economic dominance of the US by ignoring the Western military alliance NATO. Trump was embroiled in a conflict with Europe and a trade war with China. Supporters of the US policy believe that the US has moved away from issues of democracy and human rights under Trump. As a result, the power of the US was reduced.
In contrast, President Joe Biden is also a follower of imperialist ethics. He is also trying to maintain the superpower position of the US. But he tried it differently. President Biden has also been alarmed by China's growing military and commercial economy. Concerns are growing about the United States' retention of the number one position on the world stage. Therefore, Biden wants to stop China and Russia, the two progressive superpowers of the left.
Biden's relationship with Russia is strategically different. But Trump has not been so belligerent in building a blockade against China in the Indo-Pacific region centered on Taiwan. But Biden is adamant about blocking China and Russia's path. Biden has already executed the Quad and Air Treaty for the so-called defense of the Indo-Pacific region. Not only that, the Biden administration is continuing various activities on the Taiwan question. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has become a shadow war for the US.
If Trump is elected in 2024, it is assumed that the US will again be involved in conflict with Europe. Because his close relationship with Putin has been understood since 2016. In this case, Europe can also retreat from the US. They can walk the path of becoming self-sufficient in the military themselves. Europe might get some relief if Biden wins. But the West is worried about how much they can continue to support the war in Ukraine. The American media Time magazine reported in a report that China and Russia may benefit from the elections of different countries in 2024.
ARS
